News Mania Desk/Agnibeena Ghosh/1st August 2024
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for August and September 2024, signaling a robust second half of the monsoon season. This prediction comes amid severe weather conditions affecting various parts of India, including Delhi, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.
The IMD’s latest update suggests that most regions in India will experience rainfall exceeding 106% of the long-period average (LPA). However, some areas in the northeast, east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra, Kutch, and parts of central and peninsular India might receive below-normal rainfall. The forecast indicates that August’s overall rainfall will range between 94% to 106% of the LPA, with variations across different regions.
In addition to the precipitation outlook, the IMD highlights that most parts of India are expected to see above-normal maximum temperatures during August, except for the Gangetic plains, central India, and the southeast coast, which will experience below-normal temperatures. Minimum temperatures are also anticipated to be above normal in most regions, except for southeast peninsular India, where they will be normal to below normal.
The IMD points out that the neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently prevailing in the equatorial Pacific are likely to shift towards La Niña by the end of August, impacting the monsoon patterns. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to remain neutral throughout the monsoon season.
The forecast comes against the backdrop of recent severe weather events. Heavy rains and landslides in Wayanad, Kerala, have resulted in at least 194 deaths and over 200 injuries. This has been the worst natural disaster in the state since the 2018 floods, with around 8,300 people rescued and relocated to relief camps.
In Delhi-NCR, heavy rains have claimed at least seven lives, while Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have faced significant flooding and water level rise. Uttarakhand has reported at least ten deaths, with Kedarnath, Dehradun, Haldwani, and Chamoli being the hardest hit. Continuous landslides and road damage have stranded many tourists, particularly in Kedarnath. The IMD has issued heavy rain alerts for Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh.
As the monsoon season progresses, these forecasts and weather patterns underscore the need for preparedness and effective response strategies to mitigate the impacts of severe weather events across the country.
