The Satta Bazar, or illicit betting mafia, predicts that the BJP will win the most seats in Gujarat in the next elections, which are set to take place in two parts on December 1 and 5.
Bookmakers predict that the illegal market will generate close to 40,000–50,000 crore in revenue.
The Patel element
In the 182-seat State Assembly in 2002, the BJP, led by the then-chief minister Narendra Modi, won 127 seats. This time, bookmakers predicted that the party will take home at least 120 seats.
The party is not experiencing any reaction from the strong Patel community, unlike in 2017, which is a major factor in the high hopes. At that time, the community had risen in protest with reservation demands, and the BJP’s vote total had dropped to 99, its lowest level since 2002.
In June of this year, Hardik Patel, the public face of the Patel agitation during the 2017 elections, defected from the Congress party to join the BJP. Bookmakers predict that the Patel community, which makes up 12–14% of the State’s population, will vote en masse for the BJP.
The Gandhi family’s longtime adviser and important strategist Ahmed Patel, who was instrumental in mobilizing the cadre, would be missed by the Congress. In 2020, Patel passed away from multiple organ failure. The number of seats in Congress is predicted to be limited to between 15 and 30, a sharp decrease from the 77 seats in 2017.
On the other side, bookmakers predict that the Aam Aadmi Party will take 10 to 20 seats from Congress because even their minority support is likely to be split due to a lack of effective State leadership.
In Himachal Pradesh, where elections are set on November 12, similar trends are also evident. According to bookmakers, the BJP is predicted to keep control of that region as well, and the anti-incumbency effect may not be as significant.
News Mania Desk
