Is a New War on the Horizon for Ethiopia?

Tigray, the northern region of Ethiopia, teeters on the edge of another conflict. It is only starting to heal from the devastating war of 2020–2022, during which it resisted the united power of Ethiopian federal soldiers supported by Ethiopian ethnic militias, Eritrean troops, and Somali forces. Tigrayans endured a significant toll, resulting in approximately 600,000 fatalities. This time, though, the populace confronts an even harsher outlook: the chance that domestic conflict might escalate to civil war.

Factions within the Tigrayan governing party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), have become extremely divided, and the harsh accusations being exchanged are so severe that there exists a genuine likelihood of resolving their disputes through conflict. This might be unexpected for numerous outsiders. Tigrayans have successfully withstood conflict and suffering for many generations, yet they are known for engaging in careful, prolonged discussions to resolve internal disagreements.

The divisions in Tigray can be linked to the conclusion of the 2022 war. Even though the Tigrayan forces were not vanquished, they barely managed to cling on. They ran out of ammunition and were forced from crucial strongholds. Eritrean forces gained control of regions in northern and western Tigray, while Ethiopian and Amhara troops — native groups from Ethiopia’s central highlands — maintained portions of the south.

The peace agreement signed in Pretoria and Kenya mirrored the situation on the ground. The Tigrayan team transferred the responsibility for the safety of all Tigray to the Ethiopian military, instructing its forces to give up their heavy weaponry and dissolve. Politician Getachew Reda, who leads the Tigrayan team, subsequently became the head of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA). Following such a violent conflict, the peace treaty turned out to be a difficult concession for Tigrayans to accept. The accord inevitably led to disagreements within the TPLF.

At the heart of the TPLF was the Marxist–Leninist League of Tigray. Although officials claimed it was dissolved in 1991, many citizens doubted it truly was. The TPLF veteran members were raised with the tenets of democratic centralism, mandating that all individuals unconditionally accepted the resolutions of the organization’s governing body. Amid tensions regarding the peace agreement and the war party’s results, unity is significantly tested and the divisions are now visible to all.

Two groups have arisen. Debretsion Gebremichael, the TPLF chairman, heads one side while Getachew and participants in the TIRA lead the opposite side. In the publication African Arguments, author Gerrit Kurtz provides an overview of the context surrounding this conflict.

“Long-simmering tensions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) broke out into the open in August 2024. The party leadership around President Debretsion Gebremichael now stands apart from key TPLF officials in the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) around its President Getachew Reda. Each side considers the other an illegal entity. The division has stirred up fears of renewed violence in northern Ethiopia. The split occurs in a context in which the economic and social situation in the northern highlands remains dire, the legacy of the devastating war four years ago that was only stopped by the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022. … At the same time, it is unclear how much support the TPLF still commands among the population at large in Tigray. Last year, the TIRA clamped down  violently on an opposition rally in Mekelle. As a legacy of the war, many people are traumatised and focus on their own survival, especially the almost 900,000 internally displaced persons (out of a pre-war population of around six million). Tens of thousands of young people are leaving Tigray each year in search of better livelihoods, according to the TIRA. Others become criminals.”

As Kurtz stated in his article from October 2024, “the current situation is unsustainable.” This has been shown to be correct. Both Debretsion and Getachew’s groups have issued statements criticising one another — a rare occurrence within the ruling party. Both are currently trying to sway public sentiment in Tigray and gain the backing of Tigray’s soldiers and leaders. TIRA and the leaders of the TPLF have accomplished this in Tigrinya.

Debretsion’s group generally comes from northern Tigray and symbolizes the party’s traditional leadership. Getachew hails from the south and enjoys greater backing in Mekelle, Tigray’s regional capital, alongside support from younger technocrats.

High-ranking military leaders have become involved in a profitable gold business traded through Eritrea and Sudan. This commerce weakens solidarity and promotes deceit. Significant amounts of aid from the United States and other contributors were misappropriated and sold publicly. Consequently, the United States Agency for International Development and the World Food Programme suspended their support for a number of months in 2023.

The TPLF leadership felt that Getachew has too strong a connection to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Debretsion appears to have reconciled with Eritrea, a previous adversary that still occupies parts of Tigray. Senior leaders of the TPLF are committed to ensuring that federal authorities maintain official recognition of their party. This might appear to be a technical problem, yet it is quite impactful. The party possesses important assets in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, and elsewhere that might be lost.

These disparities arise as Tigrayans seek to deal with the consequences of the war from 2020 to 2022. Hundreds of thousands continue to be uprooted from their residences and face significant difficulties. According to news organization Deutsche Welle’s report from Tigray, “The interim administration of Tigray has revealed intentions to aid the repatriation of displaced individuals.” Nonetheless, the project is projected to need $2.1 billion and the political resolve to bring back the displaced individuals. Any type of internal strife, not to mention a civil war, would jeopardize this rehabilitation.