Analyzing Phase 3 of the Lok Sabha Elections: Where Everything Stands Now
Phase 3 emerges as the BJP's stronghold, with historical data revealing its dominance in this phase. Of the 95 seats in Phase 3, the BJP clinched 72 in 2019, with over 40 percent of the votes in 78 seats. Despite facing opposition in only two seats this time, the BJP's grip on Phase 3 remains formidable, particularly in Gujarat and Karnataka.
News Mania / Agnibeena Ghosh/6th May 2024
As the Lok Sabha elections progress, the nation reaches the halfway mark with voters delivering their verdict on 284 seats by the end of May 7. This surpasses the simple majority threshold of 272 seats, indicating significant electoral activity across the country. Amit Shah, the BJP’s chief election strategist, exudes confidence, asserting that the saffron party has secured over 60 percent of the 190 seats contested in Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Phase 3 emerges as the BJP’s stronghold, with historical data revealing its dominance in this phase. Of the 95 seats in Phase 3, the BJP clinched 72 in 2019, with over 40 percent of the votes in 78 seats. Despite facing opposition in only two seats this time, the BJP’s grip on Phase 3 remains formidable, particularly in Gujarat and Karnataka.
Gujarat, where polling for all 26 seats occurs in Phase 3, has historically been a significant contributor to the BJP’s electoral success. Similarly, in Karnataka, the BJP swept all 14 seats in 2019, enjoying a substantial vote share advantage. However, recent developments in Karnataka have introduced uncertainties for the BJP, particularly regarding allegations of sexual misconduct against the top leadership of its ally, the JDS.
The allegations have not only embarrassed the BJP but also cast doubts on its ability to secure the crucial women’s vote, which played a pivotal role in its re-election in 2019. Additionally, the scandal has overshadowed the BJP’s campaign on “love jihad” in Karnataka, potentially impacting voter sentiments in the remaining 14 seats of the state. Infighting within the BJP, notably against Lingayat leader BS Yediyurappa, further complicates the party’s prospects in Phase 3, which encompasses the Lingayat-dominated regions.
In Maharashtra, electoral dynamics add another layer of complexity, with political volatility and fragmented voter loyalties shaping the electoral landscape. The state’s significance lies in its substantial contribution of 41 seats to the NDA alliance and its role as a pivotal battleground between the INDIA bloc led by Sharad Pawar and the NDA. The electoral contest in the Sharad Pawar heartland is poised to be decisive, with implications extending beyond Maharashtra and influencing Phase 3 outcomes.
The verdict from Maharashtra’s Pawar belt holds considerable sway over Phase 3 and the overall electoral trajectory. As the election narrative unfolds, uncertainties persist, with the BJP navigating challenges ranging from internal dissent to external controversies. The halfway mark signifies a critical juncture in the electoral journey, with Phase 3 poised to shape the contours of political power in the days ahead.
