Trump and Republicans Face Major Setback as US Midterm Elections Approach

US President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are facing the possibility of significant electoral losses as Americans prepare to vote in the 2026 midterm elections on November 3. Forecasting models indicate that the Democratic Party could gain control of both chambers of Congress, potentially weakening the Republican administration’s legislative position during the final two years of Trump’s presidency.

The elections, held halfway through a president’s four-year term, will determine the composition of the US House of Representatives and the Senate. All 435 seats in the House and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, with 218 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate, leaving them vulnerable to relatively small electoral shifts.

According to the ElectIt forecasting model, Democrats have a 94 per cent probability of gaining control of the House and a 75 per cent chance of securing a Senate majority. The model suggests that Democrats could win approximately 230 House seats and 18 of the 35 Senate seats being contested. Such an outcome would end Republican control of both chambers and create a divided government.

Several factors appear to be contributing to the challenges confronting Republican candidates. Trump’s approval rating has reportedly fallen to around 37 per cent, while concerns about the cost of living, inflation and rising fuel prices have become important issues for voters. His administration’s tariff policies have also attracted criticism over their potential impact on consumer prices, businesses and international trade.

The continuing conflict involving Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have further contributed to higher energy costs. The average price of regular gasoline has remained above $4 per gallon for much of 2026, adding to economic concerns among American households.

Historical trends also present difficulties for the ruling party. US presidents have frequently seen their parties lose congressional seats during midterm elections. Since 1934, the party controlling the White House has generally experienced setbacks in the House and Senate, with only a few exceptions.

A Democratic takeover of Congress could increase scrutiny of Trump’s policies and administration through congressional investigations and oversight. It could also complicate the passage of legislation and budgetary proposals. However, the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and closely contested races across several states. The elections will therefore serve as an important measure of public opinion on Trump’s presidency and the direction of American politics.