India at high risk due to asteroid 2024 YR4

The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth is steadily rising. Researchers had earlier calculated that the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth was approximately 1 percent. Nonetheless, this risk has now increased to 2.3 percent. The persistent rise in the likelihood of threats is continually worrying researchers.

The most troubling part is that there is a lack of information regarding its speed and true dimensions. Researchers estimate that its dimensions may reach as much as 200 meters. Nonetheless, NASA researchers have started pinpointing possible impact zones of asteroid 2024 YR4 so that if a collision seems unavoidable, preparations can be made ahead to protect lives.

NASA researchers have predicted that if asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts Earth, it might obliterate entire cities. Consequently, the possible trajectory devised by NASA for the asteroid’s descent encompasses multiple heavily populated nations, including India. Researchers also think that if this asteroid strikes Earth, it might produce energy exceeding that of 500 atomic bombs. Thus, it is possible to assess the extent of devastation that might take place.

David Rankin, an engineer involved in NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey project, pinpointed a risk corridor for the asteroid’s downfall stretching from northern South America to the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and sections of sub-Saharan Africa. In addition to this, the nations where the asteroid is most probable to land consist of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. Scientist Rankin remarked that “even though the likelihood is low, if 2024 YR4 strikes Earth, we must consider the potential outcomes.”

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was found in December of last year. This has now emerged as a significant issue for researchers at NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). Early estimates had the collision risk at 1%, but it has now risen to 2.3 percent, categorizing it as significantly hazardous. Researchers think that there is presently limited data regarding its dimensions and velocity.

The asteroid 2024 YR4 has been classified in the highest danger category and assigned a rating of three on the Torino scale, due to the potential risk it presents. The current information suggests that this asteroid is set to come near Earth at a distance of 106,000 km on December 22, 2032, with an error margin of 1.6 million km. The report indicates that at this range, it might impact Earth in a narrow band stretching from western Central America to northern South America, then across the central Atlantic Ocean and sections of Africa, eventually reaching India.