Trump’s “Economic D-Day” Warning: An Examination of Iran’s Principal Trading Partners

Plans for the “economic asphyxiation” of Iran have been outlined by the US administration of President Donald Trump, extending Washington’s secondary sanctions threats as part of its “economic D-Day” effort to cut off Tehran from the world economy. Additionally, the US has warned to punish “enablers” who carry on doing business with Tehran.

The statement comes nearly six months into a Middle East conflict that has reached a standstill, with peace negotiations at a standstill and Tehran obstructing the majority of commerce over the vital Strait of Hormuz. Expanded secondary sanctions would target Iran’s digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping industries, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who projected the planned economic starvation as the “endgame.”

Additionally, it imposed fresh sanctions on sixty people, businesses, and ships that are allegedly involved in helping Iran generate oil wealth, acquire weapons, and engage in cyber activities. These sanctions target organisations worldwide, including those in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Europe.

The threat could nonetheless put China and China , two of Tehran’s largest trading partners, on a collision path with the United States, even though the specifics of the new US measures’ enforcement are still unclear. Tehran’s main trading partners include China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Iraq, the European Union, India, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation.

With approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports and roughly one-third of its non-oil foreign commerce, China is the country’s biggest trading partner. With the exception of over $31.2 billion in undeclared Iranian crude oil shipments, bilateral commerce was recorded as $9.96 billion in 2025.

Iranian oil, which was frequently repackaged and settled through middlemen outside the currency system, was consumed by China on an average of 1.38 million barrels per day. A Chinese refinery that bought Iranian oil was subject to sanctions by the US Treasury, which also cautioned against encouraging such commerce. Asserting its right to fight unlawful unilateral measures, China opposes US sanctions and seeks to safeguard its interests in the area.

The Emirates, positioned 50 miles from Iran across the Persian Gulf, has been a key trading hub for Iran, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $28 billion in 2024. The UAE constituted over 30% of Iran’s imports and was its third-largest export destination, accounting for 12% of Iran’s shipments.

However, this trade relationship faced a setback when the UAE suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran due to missile attacks on Emirati territory. Iran has traditionally depended on UAE banks for international economic access, and this suspension may necessitate stricter enforcement from Emirati authorities on illicit financial activities, particularly in Dubai. Experts emphasize the need for U.S. support to persuade Dubai’s leadership to cooperate with the broader national strategy in Abu Dhabi.

Turkey’s trade with Iran reached $5.7 billion in 2024, marked by Turkey importing natural gas and exporting machinery and agricultural products. Despite efforts to diversify energy sources, Turkey’s reliance on Iranian gas remained significant.

Iraq’s bilateral trade with Iran surpassed $10 billion in 2025, with Iran supplying natural gas and electricity, though trade faced disruptions this year due to regional instability. India, one of Iran’s top trading partners, saw its trade decline to $1.6 billion by March 2026. India exports agricultural products to Iran and has recently resumed crude oil imports, though future trade may be affected by potential U.S. sanctions.