TMC’s Electoral Stronghold Crumbles as BJP Surges Ahead in West Bengal

In a dramatic political turnaround in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), once firmly entrenched across the state, is witnessing a steep electoral decline, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears set to script history with a sweeping victory in the ongoing Assembly elections.

Just two years ago, during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC had demonstrated overwhelming dominance at the grassroots level. The party was leading in as many as 192 Assembly segments, underscoring its deep organizational strength and widespread support base. In contrast, the BJP lagged significantly behind, leading in only about 90 segments. The numbers reflected a clear advantage for the ruling party and suggested political stability under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

However, the current Assembly election trends reveal a stark reversal. The BJP is now projected to cross the 200-seat mark in the 294-member Assembly, a remarkable leap that would secure it a decisive mandate. The TMC, on the other hand, is expected to fall below 100 seats, marking a dramatic erosion of its political influence within a short span of time.

This shift is particularly significant as it signals the BJP’s emergence as the dominant political force in the state, potentially ending over a decade and a half of TMC rule. The scale of the reversal highlights how quickly electoral fortunes can change, even for a party that appeared firmly in control.

Political observers note that while the BJP experienced a dip in seat share during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections—winning 12 seats compared to its earlier tally of 18—it managed to retain a stable vote share of around 38–39 percent. This consistent voter base appears to have played a crucial role in the Assembly elections, enabling the party to convert its support into a far more substantial seat count.

The BJP’s steady rise in West Bengal has been evident over the past decade. From winning just two Lok Sabha seats in 2014, the party expanded its footprint significantly in subsequent elections, emerging as the principal challenger to the TMC. Its performance in the 2021 Assembly elections, where it secured 77 seats, had already indicated growing momentum.

The latest trends, however, suggest that this momentum has reached a tipping point. The BJP’s ability to bridge a gap of over 100 Assembly segments and turn it into a commanding lead reflects a major realignment in the state’s political landscape.