India’s population may shrink by 41 crore by 2100, population density to decline at a fast clip
India is the second most populous country in the world but its population is estimated to shrink by 41 crore in the next 78 years. While a high population means fewer resources for an individual, the shrinking of the population is not a panacea either — or so recent scholarly works show.
When the population growth is negative, knowledge and living standards stagnate for a population that gradually vanishes, a Stanford study showed. This is, of course, a harmful outcome. India’s population density is estimated to fall significantly in the years to come. India and China’s populations look similar at the moment but there is a vast difference in their densities.
While on average, 476 people live in every sq. kilometre in India, it is only 148 people per sq. kilometre in China. By the year 2100, India’s population density is expected to fall to 335 persons per km sq. The fall in India’s population density is projected to be much higher than what is projected for the entire world.
The fall in India’s population density projection is due to the shrinkage of the country’s population estimates. India’s population is expected to fall from 141.2 crore in 2022 to 100.3 crore in 2100, the latest report by the Population Division of the United Nations projects.
Meanwhile, other countries such as China and the U.S. are also expected to witness a similar trend. China may see its population shrink by an astounding 93.2 crore to just 49.4 crore in the year 2100. These projections are based on a low fertility rate scenario. In other words, the total fertility is projected to remain 0.5 births below what it is by around 2050.
The fall in population is expected due to the decline in fertility rates. Based on the low fertility rate projection scenario, India’s fertility rate is expected to fall from 1.76 births per woman to 1.39 in 2032, 1.28 in 2052, 1.2 in 2082, and 1.19 in 2100.
“A sharp downward trend in India and for the world as a whole is evident. As countries get richer, fertility rates appear to decline to levels consistent, not with a constant population, but actually with a declining population,” the Stanford study noted.
Considering that a gradual rise in the population may open up new windows of opportunities, African countries may have the potential to drive global growth in the second half of this century.
While the projection for most of the global regions shows a negative prospect for the population, countries such as Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Nigeria show an upward trend in population base.
Source: This article was first published in India Today
