According to the Axis My India exit poll, the Nitish Kumar-led NDA has solidified its support among voters from Scheduled Castes (SC), Other Backward Classes (OBC), Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), and higher castes in the Bihar assembly elections. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan maintains control over its core Muslim-Yadav support base.
According to the survey, the NDA will receive 43% of the vote overall, slightly more than the MGB’s 41%. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is predicted to receive 4%, and all other parties will receive 12%.
The caste breakdown shows that the NDA has a commanding 63% of OBCs, 58% of EBCs, and 49% of Scheduled Castes. Additionally, it leads the top castes with ease (65%), suggesting a broad social coalition that is comparable to its success in 2020.
With a staggering 90% of Yadav votes and 79% of Muslim votes, the Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, is still largely dependent on its traditional Muslim-Yadav base. There is still little support for it among OBCs (19%), EBCs (26%), and upper castes (14%). While smaller parties and independents collectively hold about 12% of the total vote, the Jan Suraaj Party has only had a slight impact across communities, gaining between 3 and 7% among different caste groups.
Based on interviews with 42,031 respondents in 2,154 villages and towns covering all 243 Assembly seats, the survey shows a close contest overall, with Yadav support and the Mahagathbandhan’s entrenched minority opposing the NDA’s wider caste reach. This election saw a significant turnout from women once more. The Election Commission reports that 71.6% of women and 64.1% of men cast ballots, with even greater female turnout in the second phase.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s welfare programs and other empowerment measures have long been recognized as a major source of support for women. This time, the Rs 10,000 cash payout for women seems to strengthen their support for the NDA.
